Iran would be even more ‘aggressive’ with nukes, says terrorism expert

“There is no question” any more, said Matthew Levitt, Ph.D., that “Iran is pursuing not a nuclear energy program, but a nuclear weapons program.”

Levitt is director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and former deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

But the implications have to do with more than whether Iran would use such weapons against Israel, Levitt continued.

“Now, you may say it is not likely that Iran would target Israel… Are they really that crazy?” he said. It is debatable whether Iranian leaders would risk the “mutually assured destruction” that could result, he said. “I believe the Iranians are rational.”

But as Levitt told an audience of about 225 in Milwaukee on Nov. 15, “I believe that if you focus only on the question of ‘If they get a nuclear weapon, do they use it against Israel?’ you miss the point.”

Instead, “My concern is Iran, from a strictly supporting terrorism perspective, is so unbelievably aggressive. And we in the West, including the United States, are traditionally so risk averse.”

Levitt was the featured speaker at the Wisconsin State of Israel Bonds 36th annual tribute dinner, held at the Intercontinental Hotel. (See photo, page 20.) His topic was “Israel: Life in a Tough Neighborhood Gets Tougher Still.”

A characteristic example of Iran’s aggressiveness, Levitt said, was the plot uncovered this past October to assassinate the ambassador of Saudi Arabia by bombing a restaurant in Washington, D.C., that is frequented not just by the ambassador, but also by members of the U.S. Congress.

Levitt said that the would-be assassin was caught and convinced to telephone his handler in Iran. As a result, U.S. Department of Justice officials have recorded an Iranian official saying he didn’t care about the likelihood of collateral casualties in such an attack, Levitt said.

“Iran is willing to carry out bombings in downtown Washington, D.C., today,” said Levitt. “Imagine what it would be like with a nuclear capability. It’s Iran on steroids.”

And Levitt, the U.S., and Israel are not the only ones worried about Iran, he said. The governments of the Arab states around the Persian Gulf that are close to Iran “are petrified. And I can tell you that on this issue… they are hand-in-glove not only with us in the United States, but with Israel as well.”

That does not necessarily mean that an Israeli military attack on Iran is immanent. “My sense is that all the stuff you heard about in the press about Israel thinking about hitting Iran in the very near term is hyperbole,” Levitt said. “It’s mostly two Israeli politicians who for domestic political reasons felt the need to sound tough.”

Even so, “a decision is going to have to be made I believe within 12 months, maybe 18 … about how to deal with” the problem of Iran, he said.

Iran may be “Israel’s primary security concern” right now, but it is hardly the only one, Levitt said.

“No matter which border you look at right now, there’s tremendous concern for Israel’s security,” he said.

Levitt said he believes the Israel-Egypt peace treaty will remain for “three billion reasons” — the annual dollar amount of U.S. aid and investment there. Nevertheless, “there’s all kinds of ways that this can go bad,” including the rise of an Islamist government there.

Moreover, “the situation in Egypt is made even more difficult by what’s happening next door in Libya,” he said. The good news is that “a terrible dictator” there, Muammar Gaddafi, has been overthrown and killed, he said.

However, “in the near term, you have the different militias fighting with each other” and “there’s no central authority.” Moreover, “one of the strongest militias that was most responsible for some of the most professional fighting” is led by someone formerly affiliated with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, “the Libyan version of Al Qaida.”

And all of Libya’s arms depots have been raided, Levitt said, sending weapons into Egypt, Gaza, and who knows where else.

To Israel’s east, Jordan has a peace treaty and a long history of security cooperation with Israel. But “Jordan’s in a lot of trouble” and some Israeli officials are concerned about its stability, Levitt said.

Nobody can predict what will happen in Syria, in the aftermath of the unrest there; but “Syria is Iran’s closest ally in the Middle East,” and Iran is not likely to allow Syria to “fall into a Western orbit without doing anything,” Levitt said.

Lebanon now has the Iran-supported terrorist organization Hezbollah as “a primary part” of its government, and now has some 45,000 rockets aimed at Israel.

Finally, Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, had announced on Nov. 20 that he was going to try to create a “unity government” between his Fatah faction and Hamas.

“A national unity government sounds benign, maybe even good,” said Levitt, “unless [it] is with a terrorist organization dedicated to Israel’s destruction,” as Hamas is.