As George W. Bush took the presidential oath for a second term Thursday, the line of those who want to succeed him kept getting longer.
For now most are denying it, but that’s routine for both political and legal reasons.
However, doing that can be risky. People could take the coyness seriously.
Presidential wannabes are easy to spot. Any politician who visits New Hampshire in winter and doesn’t bring skis is a wannabe. Especially if it’s part of a book tour promoting a tome offering solutions to all the nation’s problems, and there are also stops in Iowa, Florida and Ohio, plus a booking on Larry King.
Candidates will profess their love for Israel — some even have solid credentials to prove it — but 2004 showed Jewish voters now consider both parties pro-Israel. The Jewish vote will be won or lost on domestic issues.
In 2004, Jews showed there may be much that appeals to them about the GOP, particularly Bush’s Middle East policies, but the dominant influence there of the religious right kept them voting Democrat.
Courtship of Jewish votes reached a new high last year, particularly in potential swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Bush did well among Orthodox Jews, but they are only about 10% of Jewish voters.
Overall, Bush got 24% of the Jewish vote, continuing the GOP recovery since the debacle of his father in 1992, but he still fell short of his father’s 35% in 1988.
The only Jewish candidates mentioned so far are extreme long-shots — Sen. Norman Coleman (R-Minn.) and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.).
Coleman is virtually unknown in the Jewish community although he spent time last year campaigning around the country for Republican candidates among Jews.
Feingold is an outspoken critic of the Iraq war and advocate of campaign finance reform. If he runs, he’ll be tagged another blue state liberal, when his party seeks a more moderate image.
Republicans who may be seeking to follow Bush include:
• Jeb Bush — The heir apparent to the dynasty will be term-limited out of his job as Florida governor. You can ignore his recent denials. Big brother George dispatched him as a special envoy to the tsunami struck region for some international statesman credentials.
• Colin Powell — He leaves the State Department with most of his integrity intact; but while he’s enormously popular across party lines, he’s not conservative enough for the GOP base.
• Bill Frist — The charisma-challenged heart surgeon turned Senate Majority Leader was the first one out of the starting gate when he did a victory lap around the South right after the polls closed in November.
• Newt Gingrich — After leading the 1994 Republican revolution that took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, he dreamed of moving up Pennsylvania Avenue, but he was soon toppled by his own acolytes for excessive hubris and misbehavior. Now he’s “not ruling out” a comeback run for the White House. His new book, “Winning the Future,” reads like an outline for a presidential campaign, and guess where his book tour takes him.
• Condoleezza Rice — She’s not yet Secretary of State and there’s already a Draft Condi movement, but if she has her eye on elective office it’s more likely to be a Senate seat.
• Rudy Giuliani — The former New York City mayor is a proven vote-getter among Democrats and Jews, but he’s too progressive for the GOP’s social conservatives.
• John McCain — The war hero and maverick Arizona senator has riled too many of the party poobahs; besides, he’ll be 72 and he’s had some health problems. He is no favorite of the Bushies or the religious right, but does have solid conservative credentials and is popular among many Democrats.
• Sam Brownback — The conservative Kansas senator has won kudos for his strong support of Israel during his term as chairman of the Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East.
• Chuck Hagel — The two-term Nebraska senator is a decorated Vietnam veteran and party maverick like McCain; he’s already visited New Hampshire several times. He’s not considered one of Israel’s reliable friends.
On the Democratic side, possible contenders include:
• Hillary Clinton — The Democrat most Republicans love to hate. The former first lady is a polarizing figure, but is also one of the most popular politicians in the country, an able campaigner and a solid, hard-working New York senator. She has the same problem Kerry had last year: a liberal senator from a blue state.
• John Edwards — This South Carolina senator is traveling the country, assembling a team and developing a strategy; but many Democrats are wary because they feel he didn’t give the ticket a boost last year as Kerry’s running mate.
• Bill Richardson — Former Senate staffer, congressman, U.N. ambassador, energy secretary and now governor of New Mexico, he was a leading vice-presidential contender last year. He could help keep fellow Hispanics voting Democratic.
• Barak Obama — 2008 is too soon, and the freshman Illinois senator is young and smart enough to know that. He’s the party’s newest and brightest star.
It’s only natural for so many lawmakers to have presidential ambitions, but the last sitting member of Congress to go directly from Capitol Hill to the White House was Sen. John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Still, even unsuccessful runs can propel ordinary lawmakers into the national spotlight, and that translates into influence back on Capitol Hill. And power is the name of the game.
Douglas M. Bloomfield is a Washington, D.C.-based syndicated columnist and a former chief lobbyist for AIPAC.
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