Washington — There’s something surreal about asking two dictators to convince a third he needs to hold free elections. Yet that’s exactly what President Bush has asked the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia to tell Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat.
The risk — albeit slight — for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah is that Arafat might take them seriously.
If the Palestinians actually do hold free and fair elections, and Arafat produces the political, financial and security reforms Bush has called for, the idea could spread throughout the Arab world and endanger corrupt and unpopular leaders who stay in office by force of arms, not votes.
Noted historian Bernard Lewis said recently that if free elections were held in those countries, the regimes could not expect 20 percent of the vote. The rulers may be pro-American, but their countrymen are not, Lewis said, because the people see their rulers as corrupt, repressive and anti-democratic, and they blame the United States for propping them up.
Bush isn’t asking Mubarak and Abdullah to hold free elections — just Arafat and Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. But no sooner had Arafat pledged reform and elections, he, typically, then began backing off.
He is talking about local elections late this year and legislative and presidential votes next year. Maybe. First, Israel must withdraw (take your choice) to pre-September 2000 lines, to pre-1967 lines, from Arab cities and towns, from Planet Earth.
In addition, by permitting more terror attacks, including by factions within his own Fatah organization, he can use the likelihood of Israeli retaliation as another excuse to delay reforms and elections.
Idea catching on
But Arafat has another problem. The idea of free elections is catching on among Palestinians.
For ordinary Palestinians, it is a long sought opportunity to take control of their lives from Israel and from Arafat’s corrupt clique. But they are “powerless,” said Palestinian analyst Ghassan Khatib.
However, powerful Palestinian officials who are also calling for reform are “notably not sincere and are rather part of a current power struggle” and trying to cover up their own corruption, he added. The way to test sincerity, he noted, is whether they call for “regular, free and democratic elections that will empower the public and enforce accountability, transparency and efficiency.”
Bush should apply that test to his Arab partners in this venture. There is no record that the subject even came up when Abdullah was at the President’s Texas ranch last month. When Mubarak comes to the White House next week, don’t bet that Bush will raise it then, either.
What Bush can do, though, is demand that Mubarak speak forcefully about the need for peace and tighten up his own borders, which have been so porous for Palestinian arms smugglers.
Asking Mubarak and Abdullah to lobby for democratic reforms is no odder than those rival dictators telling Bush how two democracies — America and Israel — should conduct their own bilateral relations.
Abdullah and Mubarak don’t care much for Arafat, who they fear wants to drag them into a regional war. They would like to see a more stable Palestinian regime that can reach an agreement with Israel — to protect themselves, not Israel — and they don’t believe Arafat is capable. They agree with Bush (and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon) that somehow Arafat must be replaced.
The Bush administration is divided over how to do that, according to a New York Times report. Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld say the aging Arafat is hopeless and should be removed. Secretary of State Colin Powell, Abdullah and Mubarak say Washington must work with Arafat, accept his promise for reform and hope he’ll fade away.
Bush has been zigzagging between the camps since he came to office. He has, at least for now, decided to give Arafat yet another chance — despite recent comments that Arafat has “had chance after chance” and failed.
Abdullah, in whom Bush has put so much faith, failed to deliver on his promises to exert influence over Arafat and Hamas. Arafat is already backing off his pledges for reform and doing virtually nothing to dismantle the terror network.
A senior Hamas leader announced this week that no Arab country has asked his organization to stop the suicide bombings. Saudi Arabia is a major financial backer of Hamas and recently held a telethon to help the families of the bombers.
The real pressure on Arafat is coming from the Palestinian street. But it needs help from those like Abdullah and Mubarak to produce results.
No serious person believes Arafat is capable of running an honest and democratic government any more than Abdullah and Mubarak are. The longer Bush plays this game of footsy with corrupt dictators, the more elusive will be democracy and peace and the more dangerous the neighborhood becomes.
Douglas M. Bloomfield is a Washington, D.C.-based syndicated columnist and a former chief lobbyist for AIPAC.
Loading ...