A ray of hope surfaced for the Israelis as Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat, in a recent surprise announcement — if believable — called on the members of the P.A. to reform its administrative and military structures.
At the same time, Arafat admitted that the bombings aimed against Israeli citizens were attacks that did not serve the interests of the Palestinians, but rather incited large parts of the international community against the Palestinians.
It is interesting to note that most of the pressure on Arafat to end the violence and arrange for elections appears to have come internationally, from the U.S. and leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan who have stepped in to restrain Palestinian terrorism.
President Bush and leaders of the European Union have welcomed Arafat’s statements, but insisted that they are now looking for action from him to fulfill his promises. They look forward to the Palestinians rebuilding the P.A. on the basis of democratic principles, market economics, good governance, accountability, transparency and opposition to terror.
If Arafat were replaced, this change in leadership could push the peace process into high gear. (Assuming elections would be held.) No further negotiations with Arafat would take place since he will be put on the sidelines by the Palestinian electorate.
Arafat has been under mounting internal and international pressure to reform P.A. institutions and security services and decentralize decision-making powers. Among the demands for change are the separation of the legislative and judicial system from the executive.
A prime minister will be selected. It will be the responsibility of this person to unify and strengthen the security services, change officials, uproot corruption and reduce the number of ministers from 28 to 15.
While Arafat has neither set a date for elections nor given details of his vision for reform, he has indicated that he plans to hold new Palestinian elections by early autumn 2002 at the latest.
P.A. spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi has suggested, “We need reforms that include all the executive authorities, the security apparatuses, and the legislative council. This government has to resign and to give the Palestinians an opportunity to form a new government. The political regime and the security regime should be changed.”
A word of caution. No sooner had Arafat issued the call for Palestinian elections than he added a qualification that required that Israel pull back its troops from the West Bank and Gaza and lift existing travel restrictions before the Palestinians would hold an election that would require Arafat to face voters for the first time in six years.
Israeli officials have stated that these “added on conditions” meant that Arafat is not serious about his facing the voters.
Benefits to business
Let’s walk through a scenario of an election that resulted in the elimination of Arafat. This would produce a result that I believe American business executives would find attractive as they consider a future investment in Israel. These benefits could surface:
1. The new Palestinian government might well see the need to eliminate terrorism and enter into a peace agreement with the Israelis. As a result, American companies would seek out joint ventures with Israelis and Palestinians. They would welcome the opportunity to do business in a democratic climate.
2. American companies would place “doing business in Israel” on the front burner to take advantage of the many windows of opportunity Israel provides.
3. The U.S. State Department would remove restrictions imposed against travel to Israel.
4. Boycotts imposed against the import of Israeli products by Arab and some European buyers would be removed.
5. American companies would be able to take advantage of low cost labor that is available in the West Bank and Gaza via their Israeli operations.
6. A market of more than 200 million Arab people will open to American and Israeli companies.
7. Israeli, Palestinian and American companies will be able to participate in a $50 billion Middle East Economic Development Plan that has been designed by the Israelis.
In the best of worlds, a newly elected Palestinian leadership will meet the Israelis at the peace negotiating table. Jobs will be created to replace bombs in the rebuilding of the West Bank and Gaza.
Milwaukeean Elmer L. Winter is founder and chairman of the Committee for the Economic Growth of Israel.
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