Today, “American Jews are the most thriving in the world and in Jewish history,” said Dr. Uzi Rebhun, professor and researcher at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and current Honorary Fellow at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Rebhun, an expert on the demographics and sociology of Jewish populations in the United States, spoke on the subject, ‘Demography, Family and Jewish Identity in Contemporary America,” during a lunch program held at Congregation Beth Israel on Monday, Feb. 7.
The program, which drew some 60 people, was co-sponsored by the American Friends of the Hebrew University, the Harry & Rose Samson Family Jewish Community Center’s Off-Center program and the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s Center for Jewish Studies.
In 1948, American Jews made up for about 6 percent of the world’s total, and today, make up about 40 percent, Rebhun said. However, since the 1960s, the American Jewish population has showed a trend of “overall stagnation,” the result of increased intermarriage rates, as well as the difficulty in clarifying the definition of who is truly a Jew, which is becoming “more complicated in the context of America today.”
According to Rebhun, who referred to the National Jewish Population Survey 2001-01, which was sponsored by the United Jewish Communities and the Jewish federation system, there are about 5.3 million “core” Jews in America today. He defines these Jews as those who see themselves as Jewish, including those who may not meet halachic (Jewish law) criteria.
Of this group, Rebhun said 47 percent are Reform, 36 percent are Conservative, 14 percent are Orthodox, and 3 percent are Reconstructionist.
In addition, Rebhun identified two smaller “sub-populations.” There are approximately an additional 1.7 million people in America who may not be Jewish, but who have Jewish background, and another 2.2 million who are not Jewish but live with a Jewish person. The “complexity” of the figures is the “result of intermarriage,” Rebhun said.
In 1957, Rebhun pointed out that the intermarriage rate between Jews and non-Jews was about 4 percent. In 2000, it rose to 47 percent. While Rebhun noted that “most Jews maintain Jewish identity in intermarriages,” at least “half of the children [from these marriages] need to be raised and defined by their parents as Jews” in order to keep the population at it’s current rate.
Another problem that contributes to the decreasing Jewish population in America is that, on average, an American Jewish woman has only 1.85 children in her lifetime.
After taking into account that all of these children may not be raised Jewish, the number is reduced to 1.7. This is below the typical “replacement level” of two children.
Currently, the largest age group in American Jewish population is the baby-boomers, who are now in their mid-50s. The aging of this population will eventually lead to a “terminal stage of more deaths than births,” Rebhun said, and “therefore a natural decrease” in population levels.
However, Rebhun predicts that the aging of the baby-boomers will result in an “echo effect,” where the children of this group are reaching “the critical age of getting married and having children,” which should keep the population rates stable for at least the next couple of years.
Despite these stagnant rates, Rebhun noted that Jews remain the third largest religious group in America, behind Protestants and Catholics, with about 1.8 percent of the national total.
“No other group exceeds one percent of the national total,” Rebhun said.
Currently, 95 percent of Jews live in 10 countries, with 39 percent of the world’s total living in Israel. By 2030, Rebhun predicts that Israel will be home to “the absolute majority” of world Jews, with more than half of the world’s Jewry residing there. By the mid-21st century, he expects 8 million Jews will live there.
The program was second in Off-Center’s Lunch and Learn series, which offers adult programs, workshops and clinics throughout the community. For more information on future programs, call 414-540-9830 or email, offcenter@jccmilwaukee.org.
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