Israel “does not yet know how things will unfold” in the supposed “Arab spring” of recent revolts against dictatorial regimes in several Arab countries.
But according to Shahar Arieli, deputy consul general of the Israel Consulate to the Midwest in Chicago, “We do know that it is a time [for Israel] to be cautious, not a time to make drastic changes” in its relations with the Palestinian Arabs and the Arab countries, most of which are still officially at war with Israel.
“Any deal you make today [with Arab governments] might be worthless tomorrow,” especially if “those revolutions fall into the hands of Muslim extremists,” he said.
For example, he said, “Israel paid with very hard currency” for the peace treaty with Egypt in the 1970s, giving “land-for-peace” by returning the captured Sinai Peninsula to Egypt.
But if the Muslim Brotherhood takes control of Egypt, it is likely that its leaders will repudiate the treaty, because their religious beliefs mean they “can’t come to terms with the existence of a non-Muslim country in the Middle East,” Arieli said.
And yet, as Arieli said in a Jewish community briefing held the Helfaer Jewish Community Services Building on June 13, “nothing can be better for Israel in the long run” than for the Arab countries around it to become “more democratic.”
At least in modern times, “there has never been a war between two democracies,” Arieli said.
The upshot is that Israel “has to be prepared for all possibilities,” he said.
Why are revolts occurring in so many Arab countries at once? Arieli said it is largely because of the Arab countries’ poor economies coupled with the new computerized news and “social” media.
The Arab world has “missed out on an entire century” of economic and political development, he said. Most of the countries are ruled by either dictatorships or monarchies; and small groups of people have the power to dominate the economies through control of capital.
Until recently, the Arab governments could fairly easily conceal their countries’ economic and political disadvantages from their people, Arieli said. “A person who has never tasted quality food doesn’t know what he’s missing,” he said.
But via the new computerized media, “the young generation now understands what they’re missing, and they want all that now,” he said.
Because the Arab nations’ economies are closed and stagnant while their populations are growing faster than the economies, members of the younger generation have a difficult time finding jobs. That “is the main reason” for the revolts, said Arieli.
Add to that cause a variety of “tribal, ethnic, and religious disputes” that exist in the countries, Arieli said. In Syria, the minority ethnic-religious group of Alawis is trying to keep ruling over a majority Sunni Muslim population. Libya is “also a tribal country” with a similar situation, he said.
This briefing with Arieli was arranged by the Jewish Community Relations Council of the Milwaukee Jewish Federation.
The JCRC in partnership with the Milwaukee Area Jewish Committee also hosted a group that included Arieli; Ami Eshed, chief of police of Netanya; Giroa Meloul, Israel Police bomb technician; Tom Rowan, director of Homeland Security Affairs for the Midwest Israel Consulate; and Arik Mordechay, vice consul and chief of security for the consulate.
This group spoke at a number of venues, including at a security briefing held June 13 at the Harry & Rose Samson Family Jewish Community Center.
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