For Americans, but especially for Jews, 2008 will be a pivotal presidential election.
With emergence of new threats to Israel, Judaism and the Jewish people, Jews are focusing on the presidency as an institution pivotal to their security.
Jewish voting patterns over the past 75 years have tended to be fixed, with the Democrats winning 75-80 percent. The coming presidential contest has raised some options and possibilities.
Selectively during the past three decades, Republican presidential candidates have created inroads into the Democratic Jewish voting bloc.
Ronald Reagan did so in 1980, garnering 38 percent of the Jewish vote. President George H.W. Bush secured more than 30 percent in his 1988 campaign. The current President Bush raised his total from 19 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000 to 25 percent in 2004.
In periods of high economic or social anxiety, voters tend to return to their traditional base. For Jews this would normally be the Democratic nominee.
This year, the Jewish vote is likely to be more contested than in recent elections. Current polling suggests such a trend, with U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) hovering at about 60 percent of the Jewish vote.
A shift of 20 percent of the Jewish vote rather than the normal 10-12 percent could affect the outcome. In swing states with significant Jewish voting populations, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, such a scenario is possible.
Factors that may affect how Jews approach the presidential sweepstakes include: a possible recession at home, an unpopular war abroad, and unease about the demise of America’s economic and political standing in the world.
Also at play is the apparent emergence of two camps: Red State and Blue State Jews.
Red and Blue States
The candidacy of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may represent for a significant group of Jewish voters a challenge to the historically strong connection of the Jewish voter to the Democratic Party.
Unlike President Bush at the start of the 2000 campaign, McCain has had a long connection with the pro-Israel community that will enable him to do well with specific Jewish constituencies, especially the new class of Red State Jewish voters that emerged during the past eight years.
Such voters take on some characteristics of core Republicans. Primarily concerned with Israel’s security, this group embraces Bush’s commitments to Israel and supports continuation of a strong U.S. military and diplomatic focus in the Middle East designed to contain Iran and its allies.
This segment of voters treats the rise of global anti-Semitism and the case for Israel as central elements in defining their political orientation today.
A particular component of McCain’s support among Jewish voters appears to be a group that has reservations about Obama.
Yet McCain faces challenges. His support for overturning Roe v. Wade, his health-care proposals and other domestic positions have met opposition among key Jewish constituencies.
Even on foreign affairs, polls show most American Jews reject major elements of the Bush administration policy backed by McCain, most notably the Iraq war.
Blue State Jewish voters approach political choices through a multi-issue agenda, encompassing a woman’s right of choice, aggressive environmental protection, gay rights, and other social and public policy concerns.
One element of this sector comprises a growing segment of voters described as “the gentry liberals” who are the primary beneficiaries of both globalization and the financial investment markets. They reside in some of this nation’s wealthiest congressional districts.
According to polling data and funding sources, many of these Blue State Jews were early supporters of the Obama campaign.
Obama may represent a fundamentally different type of American politician. He draws upon his organizing instincts, the influence within his life of religious and cultural values, the rhetoric and style of the black church, and his sense of American politics and history.
This phenomenon appeals to Jewish liberals’ instincts, especially for those Jews who either grew up in political or social “movements” themselves or whose family roots are tied to the culture of the labor union tradition.
A second factor involves the candidate himself. Obama represents a new cosmopolitan generation of leaders, well educated, articulate and with diverse life experiences. He appeals to an intellectual class of Jewish voters.
The “gentrified liberal” sector of the new Jewish class of wealthy technologists and entrepreneurs find Obama’s style and message in concert with their values and political instincts. They have rallied to his campaign.
Similarly, Obama for some reflects the continuation of the traditional anti-war/anti-establishment faction within U.S. politics. His rhetoric appeals to this element within the Jewish community.
Some Jews report that Obama’s ideas portray for them a “prophetic calling” linking to their own Jewish social justice imperative.
However, there is a countervailing force within the Jewish community as a result of the revelations involving the political views of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and the failure of the candidate to repudiate and step away earlier from Trinity United Church of Christ.
Similarly, Republican efforts to paint him as an unreliable supporter of Israel surrounded by unsympathetic Middle East policy advisers and his publicly expressed willingness to negotiate with the leader of Iran also have hurt Obama’s standing in certain Jewish circles.
Looking ahead
Demographic changes within the Jewish community add to this complexity. A new and growing segment of U.S. Jewish voters has emerged.
It includes recent émigrés from Russia, Israel and Iran, and a younger cohort of Orthodox Jewish voters. All of these constituencies are increasingly aligned with the Republican Party.
Jews born prior to 1945 identify in higher numbers with the Democratic Party than do baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, and Gen. Xers and Yers, those born between 1965 and 1983.
Fifty-five percent of the pre-1945 cohort identifies with the Democrats and 15 percent with the Republicans. Identification with the Democrats drops to 43 percent in the younger cohorts.
One of the primary characteristics of Jewish voters wherever they are on the political spectrum is their overwhelming negative reaction to mismanagement, scandal or the absence of effective leadership.
The current disgust with government has contributed to growth of a segment of Jewish voters who describe themselves as “independent.” Today, a third of all Jews consider themselves to be such.
Again “the Jewish vote” will be in play for the national elections, in part due to the high turnout exhibited by this body of voters.
As in the past, the Jewish voter will receive a significant amount of attention as candidates seek to appeal to the emerging and diverse constituencies that now comprise this community.
Steven Windmueller, Ph.D., is dean of the Hebrew Union College-Jewish Institute of Religion in Los Angeles and adjunct professor of Jewish communal studies.
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