For Jews around the world, 5764 was the usual mixed bag of bad and even worse news. Abroad, there was worry about anti-Semitism in Europe, a seeming stalemate in Iraq and little let-up in the terrorist war against Israel. At home, scandals and partisan politics seemed to take center stage.
Can things get worse in 5765? Of course they can!
But even as we cope with terrorism and hold our breath about the outcomes of the November election and of Israel’s plan to pull out of Gaza, we shouldn’t lose what is left of our sense of humor.
So before the Almighty writes how much worse (or better) it will be for us in the Book of Life, I present (with apologies, as always, to New York Times columnist William Safire) the annual Jewish Exponent Jewish Pundit Quiz for 5765.
In last year’s quiz, I was right about the future of the peace process. No applause, please; predicting a stalemate there is like shooting fish in a barrel.
However, I wrongly predicted that Howard Dean would win the Democratic nomination for president and that Mel Gibson’s movie “The Passion of the Christ” would bomb at the box office.
Topping those whoppers will be difficult. Save this column, and see if you or I do better this time.
So prognosticate along with me about the coming year. My answers are at the bottom. And remember, repentance, prayer and acts of justice and charity may avert the severe decree.
1. The winner of the 2004 presidential election will be:
a. George W. Bush
b. John F. Kerry
c. Ralph Nader
2. Bush’s percentage of the Jewish vote will be:
a. 10 percent, an all-time low, costing him key states.
b. 18 percent, matching his 2000 total.
c. 30 percent, enough to squeak through in Florida.
d. 40 percent, matching Reagan’s 1980 record.
3. The biggest Jewish winner(s) of the 2004 election will be:
a. Pennsylvania’s Sen. Arlen Specter, whose re-election will bring him the chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
b. Pennsylvania Rep. Allyson Schwartz, whose win in one of the few competitive House races will make her a star.
c. The Jewish senior citizens of Palm Beach County, Fla., who will figure out this year’s ballot and be the subject of endless press coverage.
d. GOP campaign guru Ken Mehlman, whose success will make him Karl Rove’s successor in Bush’s second term.
e. Boston Democratic fundraiser Alan Solomont, who will have critical access to the White House after Kerry wins.
4. By the end of 5765, the conflict in Iraq will be:
a. Largely over, as local forces are able — with U.S. help — to hold elections and continue the rebuilding of the country.
b. Stalemated, as Islamist terrorists and American troops remain locked in a war of attrition.
c. Ended in defeat, with a Kerry administration pullout, combined with a handing over of control to the United Nations and the resulting takeover of Baghdad by Iranian-backed extremists.
5. The key player on Middle East policy in the next four years will be:
a. Dennis Ross, who will resume his perennial role as U.S. envoy to the region after Kerry wins.
b. Elliott Abrams, whose influence at the National Security Council will rise in the second Bush administration.
c. Kerry’s Secretary of State, Joseph Biden.
d. George W. Bush, whose surprising pro-Israel principles will continue to be the key element of U.S. policy towards the Palestinians.
e. The FBI, whose relentless, if baseless, efforts to target pro-Israel forces for prosecution will cause both the GOP and the Democrats to shun the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
6. By the end of 5765, Jewish settlements in Gaza will be:
a. Accepting applications for new residents as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan is shelved after his coalition collapses over economic issues.
b. Handed over to the Palestinians, as Sharon’s disengagement plan is carried off without a hitch.
c. The site of battles between the Israeli army and Palestinian Authority “police” as terrorists use the ouster of Jewish settlers as a cover for massive attacks.
d. Converted into casinos as dovish U.S. Jewish financiers partner with Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian Authority.
7. The most significant event in Jewish history to take place in 5765 will be:
a. The dissolution of the North American Jewish federation system as internal squabbling and the collapse of fundraising in the recession of 2005 sound the death knell of Jewish philanthropy.
b. The mass aliyah of French Jewry, following bloody anti-Israel riots by North African Arabs.
c. The dual marriage in an Orthodox ceremony of Bush twins Jenna and Barbara to Jewish pop singers Evan and Jaron Lowenstein, officiated by “Kosher Sex” author Rabbi Shmuley Boteach.
d. The passage of Israeli Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s budget, which wins the battle for a free-market economy and hastens the demise of Israeli socialism.
e. A rise in Jewish day-school enrollment, funded by billionaire George Soros, after he abandons leftist politics and embraces Judaism on a bet with fellow mogul Michael Steinhardt over Bush’s re-election.
8. The most hotly debated issue among American Jews in 5765 will be:
a. Jewish liberal angst over whether the 2004 election was fairly decided.
b. Whether or not synagogue schools can compete with Orthodox alternatives designed to woo the unaffiliated.
c. News media bias against Israel.
d. The acceptance of gay marriage.
e. The high cost of bar and bat mitzvah theme parties.
Tobin’s answers: 1. a, 2. c, 3. a, 4. b, 5. d, 6. b, 7. d, 8. a.
Jonathan S. Tobin is executive editor of the Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia.
